Venator Materials VNTR, Betting on "Dogs"- Call Options

 Link to Venator Materials

Venator Materials (VNTR) is very interesting company, besides wide range of products they offer, their valuation is incredibly low.
Shrinking revenues and earning are not as bad as charts could make us believe or explain why this +$20 per share stock is trading now around $1.25.
If there are some underlying problems with this company, we don't  know that, but I would rather attribute oversold condition of VNTR to shrinking economy, lower demand for products and sluggish commodity prices.
Is VNTR worth buying at this stage? yes and no,  NO, because we don't know how long this economical slump will last and when commodity prices will start to move up to catch up with hidden inflation. YES, because right now VNTR is trading  much below 0.1 price to sales and could be subject to hostile takeover, buyback from (HUN) Huntsman Corporation at price much higher than Friday $1.25 closing....ahmm, like between $7- $15 a share ?. Of course, what I am writing here is pure speculation, but still, in my opinion VNTR stock belongs to $5-$7 range or even higher.
I don't intend to buy into Venator, because it is too risky, yet, I am thinking about following this stock with "Long shot" call option strategy, it costs only $5 per contract on June 19th $2.5 strike. If VNTR "decides" to move to the upside, I believe, the jump can be rather explosive, on high volume and that will propel call option prices skyward.

* below:  VNTR weekly chart since 2017, it's IPO

Socially and Polically correct investing

For last couple of years, so called "socially and politically correct" mostly governmental funds have been dumping "incorrect" stocks from their portfolios. First, they started with gun manufacturers, then time came to sell fossil fuel companies and booze enterprises .
May be there wouldn't be anything special about it, after all, we can invest as we are pleased, but if all Canadian government funds dump local stocks like Molson Coors and Canadian oil companies which offer employment to Canadians and pay local taxes, not to mention dividends to investors, because they are "socially incorrect" and buy JD.com retailer in China, then may be Canadians  should ask Chinese to pay their retirement benefits in the future ? .....just a thought

ADM is ready to bounce up

ADM - Archer Daniels Midland Co. is one of world's major traders in agricultural commodities. It's a stable company with good valuation and solid dividends not like some tech high flyers with outrageous P/S, propelled  to the upside mostly by hype, short squeezes and institutional buying.

Also, what I like about AMD it's high liquidity of options.

On 05/07/2020, Thursday, I went long on May 22nd $36.5 strike call options with average price $40 per contract after I realized that this stock short term oversold below $35 and is ready to bounce to the upside and hopefully start it's bull run toward ex-dividend date which is on 5/19/2020 . 

My risk is pretty low and limited, even if I will be wrong with my prediction, but if I am right, reward could be substantial in range of 100-300 % or even more, if ADM "decides" to go on "rocket ride" for some reason, like interest from institutional buyers ...?
 

Screen shot from bigcharts.com

TAP Stock looks oversold

Looks like TAP (Molson Coors Beverage Co Class B) is ready to form the bottom and bounce back. If you look up the whole sector of beverages stocks, they show  similar characteristics, including BUD and KO. 

I decided to go with TAP because it has better value and greater upside potential.

As of today I am long on Call option May 22 with strike at $39.5 for  0.58 cents per contract. 

picture by bigcharts.com

picture by marketchameleon.com

Facebook Manipulates Your Mind

How Facebook manipulates your Likes, your mind, and why it is waste of time

 
picture by  Cagle,com

Does facebook manipulate likes?

I recently took over managing an organization's fb account. Before me, they were doing a pretty lack lustre job. Saying "Hi!" every other day or posting memes that hardly related to their business.

On the week that I took over, I started posting really great photos of their product/property. Immediately post likes went up from 3/4 to 20-50 likes per post but page likes stayed stagnant. On the fourth day, I posted a photo that went somewhat viral (200 likes, 64 shares.) The next few days the page got 600 new likes.

Since then, I've continued posting great pics and info hoping for a repeat. The likes are creeping up slowly...3 a day or so.

My questions: Is it possible or likely that facebook gave me a lot of exposure that first week just to give me an addictive taste for likes? Or is it more likely that that one early random post went viral and nothing else since has been worthy?

Is there social network theory that may explain the early jump. (e.g. Given my graph and the strength of my brand, there is some baseline number of likes that would be attained almost immediately once I actually started trying with the page. But then I have to fight for small increments in likes after that? I dunno sounds a little wonky but there must be some math to this thing.

I guess bottom line: I'm trying to figure out what's attainable and where the goal posts lie - wondering how much I have to do to get there. If I'm asking the wrong questions, please feel free to enlighten/redirect. Thanks.

Read More..... Facebook Manipulations