Saturday, July 4, 2020

BTU Peabody Energy Corp.

Coal mining,-  BTU,Peabody Energy Corp. 
Anyway you look at it, it's very unattractive company. 
First of all, coal as source of power is on it's way out because of high pollution generation. 
Second, price of coal is close to 10 year low.
Yet, about 35 % of power plants in US run on coal and government wont let this industry disappear overnight.
There is not much hope for coal producers and traders in long run, but short term call option trade could be rewarding .... IMO
*I am thinking, the hot summer could cause higher demand for energy and force energy producers to restart coal plants and that could put upward pressure on coal prices....Higher coal prices could benefit coal producers like Peabody Energy BTU, chart also looks promising with oversold signs.
-I am long on BTU calls with expiration July 17th, let's see what happens in next 2 weeks....



*Price of coal in last 10 years

Friday, June 26, 2020

TTM, Tata Motors Call Options



TTM, Tata Motors, may be it is not high flyer or darling of he Wall Street, but this stock used to be trading at +$50 a share in 2015 and now it barely trades above $6.50 a share after hitting 15 years low at $3.82 about 3 months ago .
Does it mean that major manufacturer of motor cars in India is going out of business or Indian economy is about to collapse? 
I don't think so, sooner or later Indian market and Indian rupee will stabilize and demand for Tata cars and trucks will go to normal, besides, this company is in hands of Tata family which is majority holder with great pride and traditions.
IMO, I don't bet that this stock will turn in a rocket any time soon, but I would follow it with monthly call options bought on any significant pull backs in stock price.
Right now, I am long on July 17th @$5 call options for $158.....


 * 15 year monthly charts of Tata Motors

Saturday, June 13, 2020

CCK, Crown Holdings, Inc Case study

CCK, Crown Holdings, Inc or Crown Cork & Seal Company as it used to be known, in December of 2001 was $1 stock.
There is nothing special about this company, an old and boring manufacturer of metal packaging which has been in existence since 1892.
I remember when CCK went below $1 a share in 2001 I gave up on watching it because there was no news about it, financial information was very limited and all I knew, that it had P/S below 0.1, shrinking sales and negative earnings. Since being very old company, I assumed that there might have some other problems behind very low price, like labor disputes with unions, high debt or something else.
I almost forgot about this stock, but sometimes later I checked price of CCK and I couldn't believe my eyes, it was trading around $10 a share in sluggish to bearish market of 2002

 *Below chart shows CCK trading range between September 2001 and March 2002

Example of CCK chart is interesting because it shows signs and patterns of accumulation of stock by "insiders", bankers and institutions, these guys don't buy 100s, 1000s of shares, they buy them in millions. Of course they buy into current information which is not available to average investor or trader.
All that mumbo jumbo you might hear on TV or read on investment portals, that market moved down because higher unemployment rate or moved up because of FED cut interest rates is nothing else but trying to give "reason" to  average Joe why market is fluctuating, in reality market/stocks are going through periods of accumulations and distributions or profit taking by "big boys". To move trillions of dollars worth of stocks up or down is a biggest industry in the world......and I still try to figure this out, why are they doing this? because for every winner in the market, there must be one who lost money.
*Market making,- Every stock in stock market has assigned institution or couple of them which are responsible for providing liquidity to particular stock when someone tries to buy it or sell it, any imbalance in buy and sell orders, make stock move up or down. Market makers have obligation to fulfill your order no matter what, even if they don't have shares of particular stock on hand. In situation like this, they take "short position", which means they will profit from this transaction only when and if stock price go below price they paid for.

Sunday, May 24, 2020

Sasol SSL Call Options June

Sasol SSL Website

Seems like Sasol SSL chart became very compressed, also daily volume has been going on for last 12 days below 5 million shares a day, even on a days when stock lost more than 12% and went below $4.00 a share.
I think, SSL will start to move up pretty soon.
I am long another 10 contracts on June 19th @$7.50 at $10 per contract for total $100.



Sunday, May 17, 2020

Upwork UPWK Company I like, Call Options



Upwork's Website

First time in a while I found company with great growth potential and fair valuation. Probably I wouldn't notice UPWK as a stock worth interest, if not for high volume day and substantial jump in price, because, usually I don't look for companies with valuations over 1 P/S. So I checked fundamentals, and I realized UPWK has market cap of less than 1.5 billion which is very unusual in technology sector, it doesn't make any profit, has revenue growth +20%, that's still nothing special to get excited about, until you read some more to find that Upwork is a leader in the field of remote hiring, it has been around since 1999, much longer than any competitor and has new CEO (Hayden Brown) in place with vision to execute growth at higher rate, possibly at +50% pace.
So, the very next day I bought 2 call contracts with expiration June 19th and strike $12.5 at average price $1.55 per contract. Now, let's hope that Upwork continues on it's uptrend to make me some money :)

Upwork's weekly charts since it's IPO in 2018
 

Upwork Inc UPWK CEO Hayden Brown on Q4 2019 Results.... video.